Author Archives: Jean-Paul

Romney team “shell-shocked”?

I find this article baffling.  Either that or the article explains a whole lot.  Romney and Ryan were surprised they lost?  They always had a chance of winning, but it was pretty obvious that chance was slim at best near the end.  Even when they had better odds, they never had more than a 50% chance of winning.  And yet, after losing they’re “shell-shocked”?  If true, the suspension of disbelief in the campaign must have been at astounding levels.  Either that or the Republican war on science had even infected Romney and Ryan.

Although, it would explain why the self-described “numbers guy”, Paul Ryan, can release a budget and claim it will solve all of our country’s budgetary ills when even a cursory look at his numbers shows them to be a sham of the highest level.  For Paul Ryan, 1+1 has always equaled 3.

Romney’s a little more difficult to figure out.  Is it possible that Romney isn’t a numbers guy?  Despite all evidence to the contrary (his business record, etc.), I have to conclude that he isn’t.  My theory would be that Romney has always just been a good manager of people who makes good decisions when surrounded by people who know their stuff.  It’s never been an issue in his business career because people who know how to hire people who know their stuff were hiring the right people.  A national campaign works differently.  There is a whole group-think aspect to the campaign that doesn’t exist in the same way it does in a business.  The result being a bias that leads you to draw people to you that are telling you what you want to hear instead of those that are telling you what you need to hear.  The result being that you make good choices based off of incorrect information.

 

Frequentists vs. Baysians

If you don’t laugh out loud at this XKCD comic, you need to take a statistics class.  Or you have a life.  Definitely one of the two.

 

I’m so glad I live in a post-racial America

Because otherwise the black guy in front of me at Subway who was told to pay for his food before the manager would make it while they happily made my food and had me pay afterwards would totally be able to claim racism. I’m sure the manager just forgot the normal order of operation for a second.

Of course, I didn’t say anything so I’m part of the problem.  I couldn’t believe it was happening.  You know how the mind kind of goes into “did I just see that?” mode?  Yeah, that was me.  Well, I won’t be visiting that particular Subway anymore. #slacktivism

Obama’s policies have been great for the gun industry

Despite coming into office in the middle of a horrible recession, President Obama did everything in his power to assure the gun industry thrived in this environment.  This consisted mostly of him getting elected.  Gun sales have gone up 10% every year since his election.

With his reelection, the markets are expecting this growth industry to continue to grow apace.  Gun manufacturing stocks are up mightily today in anticipation.  But will you hear Republicans praising Obama for making sure the gun industry stays strong for at least another four years?  Noooooo.

Why I ended up voting for Obama

I wasn’t going to vote for Obama.  I also wasn’t going to vote for Romney.  I also wasn’t going to vote for a third party candidate.  I was going to happily leave the entry for President blank when filling out my ballot.

I live in a very safe blue state.  The chances of Obama loosing my state were nil.  If there was even a shadow of a doubt that Obama would lose the state, I would have gladly filled in his box and slept well.  Like so many other things in my life, I had the luxury of voicing a silent protest without any of the dangers that my protest might bring.

So why wasn’t I going to vote for Obama?  It mostly boils down to the awful state of our country’s civil rights.  Government intrusion in our lives is even higher now than it was during the Bush years.  The Patriot Act still exists.  The Department of Homeland Security Theater still exists.  Then, on the international front, there’s illegal drone wars and targeted assassinations of U.S. citizens.  Despite all the absolutely awesome things that Obama has done in his first term, these are not the hallmarks of a president that deserves a second term.

Then the first debate happened.  Despite what the pundits almost universally say, I don’t think Obama did that bad.  He certainly “lost”, whatever the hell that means in the non-debate format that we call our presidential debates, but it was Romney’s complete 180 that had me completely flabbergasted.  I couldn’t believe that everybody was more concerned with Obama’s lackluster performance than Romney’s ultimate pandering.  Romney’s performance scared me.  I thought that this man needed to not only lose, but be buried by as large a number as possible.

The trend, if anything, got worse as the final days of the campaign wore down.  The second two debates were more of the same from Romney.  The speeches Romney started giving started containing more and more bald faced lies about Obama.  There was also the matter of everything I dislike about Obama, Romney wanted to either keep status quo or supersize.

So I voted for Obama.  President Obama is a strange character.  He has done more to advance civil rights than any president since Johnson, while at the same time exercising powers that restrict a lot of civil rights.  I hope in his second term the former stays while the latter goes.  I don’t know if I can say I’m happy with Obama winning, but I am at least content.

I really need to start blogging my predictions

Just after the polls were closed on the east coast and a few returns had filtered in, I looked at how things were going and mentioned that it looks like Obama was going to win 330 electoral votes if the trend continued.  If Florida is called for Obama, he’ll have 332 electoral votes.  But now, no one will believe me.  #Cassandra

Oh, and compare the real results to Nate Silver’s predictions.  Nate Silver is a god.

This is how you do data visualization

Check this out.  It’s a graphic of all possible ways to win for both candidates.  I won’t vouch for its completeness, but it’s interesting that Romney only has one path to victory if he doesn’t win Florida.  Also, it looks cool.

 

I Love the Smell of Participatory Democracy in the Morningtime. It smells…like ambivalence!

I always get this little thrill on Election Day.  I usually vote in the early evening.  That way I can get a feel for the participation rate.  When you sign your name to get your ballot, there is usually a sequential number on the sheet you sign.  That’s how many people have voted before you.  The election judges usually know about how many people are on the voting roll.  The last primary, I voted at around 6 PM and I was the 33rd person to vote out of a possible 2,000 or so.  *sigh*  I guess I should have titled this post “I love the smell of non-participatory democracy.”  It will be interesting to see if we can top 50% participation this time around.

I also try to ignore election news as much as possible during the day because it is a fetid sore of human puss oozing over every non-story that it can get its slimy hands on.  Once the returns start rolling in, I am glued to the TV until the winners are announced or I fall asleep.  Good times.

All that to say, go vote!  The main reason why voter ID laws are even a thing is because so few participate in the process.  If the participation rate was close to 100%, it would be much more difficult for voter ID proponents to attempt to disenfranchise legitimate voters.